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 Posted: Tue 18:51, 04 Jan 2011 Post subject: ugg stivali 1996 International Copper, aluminum, l |
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1996 International Copper,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], aluminum, lead, zinc Market Review and 1997 Outlook
Lead prices fell. International Lead Market Outlook 1997, estimated the level of lead prices increase than the end of 1996, and the first half of the price will be higher than in the second half, while the West more than advisory bodies, companies, banks, the highest and lowest estimated average price of the average, the the average price will be $ 837 / t. Price increase is due to 1. A good world economic environment. 2. Consumption will significantly increase. As the world economy. Estimate of lead consumption in 1997 than in 1996, by 4 or more. Lead consumption growth will come from the battery replaced and newly installed batteries. 1996 U.S. vehicle production is estimated that an increase of 1,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Japan 7%; expected in 1997 is expected to grow 2% in the United States, Japan will maintain the level of the previous year. 3. Production will be only modest growth. Estimated in 1997 than in the Western world refined lead production increased 2O million t in 1996 or so. And more from the regenerated lead. 4. Stock consumption ratio will drop to 4 weeks. Spot supply will become tight. Premium spot will appear. Market will remain small deficiency conditions. From June 1996 to begin to decline from the producer stocks. l2 months has dropped to 166,000 t, compared with 6 of the world non-ferrous metals] 3 months 997 less 40 000 t. Decline to 19.42. LME stocks over the same period by only 28 000 t. Consumer stocks by O. 20 000 h show that the market is still tension. 5. China and Russia will increase production, but because of China's domestic lead demand, particularly demand for the automotive industry will also increase, so will not increase exports to the West much. Some Western analysts. Lead production in China in 1997 is unlikely to increase, but demand, and the estimated lead in the next 5 years China's consumption will increase an average of 6.1 per year, so in 1997 than in 1996 exports to the West by 4 ~ 50 000 c. This could also be predicted by their lead in the 1997 average price forecast to much higher than the price of one of the reasons the author. But it seems China's exports will not be reduced. Fourth, zinc Review 1996. The basic situation of the international zinc market is: 1. Market stable in 1996 zinc prices stable international market, basically to cross moving there too, the average price of $ 1,025.19 / t. Slightly lower than the previous year. 2 zinc production increased, according to cRu statistics, in 1996 the Western world zinc mine production was 5.58 million t, an increase of 3.68. Concentrate demand on the smelter down 0.05 compared with 1995. Only 5.31 million t, and thus concentrate the market oversupply 270,000 t. 3. Refined zinc production declined slightly, according to CRU statistics,] 996 years of Western World refined zinc output was 5.456 million t, down 0.2% over the 1995} consumption was 6.14 million t, down 1.6 compared with 1995. However, a number of other agencies estimate that consumption should be around 6.2 million t,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], ie essentially unchanged compared to 1995. 4. Stock down to the end of 1996, the Western Producer Pat inventory from the beginning of 357 000 t dropped to 274,000 t; LME stocks of 665,000 t by the year dropped to 513,000 t, the total stock of Western society gradually decreased, so that inventories decreased consumption of 7.4 weeks. Looking zinc market in 1997: 1. Zinc prices have significantly increased than in 1996, the average price is expected to reach $ 1,150 / t. Western companies, banks, consulting agencies believe that the average zinc prices in 1997 up to $ 1,278 / t, the average minimum is $ 1,057 / t, its average n67.4 USD / t2. Consumption will have a more significant increase, estimated at 3 or more. According to the information currently available. Consumption accounted for 48 of the galvanized zinc industry, in 1997 there will be greater development, as prospects for the automotive and construction industry. Within the next three years may be the world's zinc production line 2O article. 3. Zinc production increased. However, consumption growth will be less than the total output may be one more than in 1996 1o 160 000 t. Concentrate the market surplus will be reduced, because China may increase imports,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], so smelting processing fees will not rise much. 4. A slight increase in imports from the east, the Chinese concentrate shortage will ease, the production will rise, exports will increase. Western countries is expected to import from the East will be about 55 million t. 5. Market will continue to exist in short supply,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], estimated 1997 market presence in Western 2O million t of zinc is about supply shortages. Inventory will be reduced to normal levels. Stock / consumption ratio will drop to 6 weeks, the market began to enter the shortage of state. In this case, speculative funds may enter the market to buy. Consumer help rebuild inventories. Does not exclude a certain stage there is a large rise in zinc prices situation. * 43 *
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